November 15, 2026 | US–Iran Tensions

Iran still holds between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles, according to a new assessment by the United States intelligence community, leaving Tehran with a formidable ability to strike American and allied targets if the war resumes. The Iran missile arsenal has survived months of American and Israeli strikes aimed at destroying it, and the finding directly challenges claims from Washington that Tehran’s military power had been largely wiped out.

The assessment was reported by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday, citing American officials familiar with the intelligence. The officials said the estimate carries a low level of confidence, because it is hard to pin down exactly how many missiles Iran has ready to launch and how many remain in storage. Even so, they said it is clear that Tehran retains a substantial stockpile.

Israeli military officials have reached a similar conclusion, estimating that Iran holds more than 1,500 ballistic missiles, although assessments across the region vary.

What Did US Intelligence Find?

The core finding is the range itself: 1,500 to 2,500 missiles. At the low end, that would mean Iran has already replenished more than half of its estimated pre-war stockpile, according to Simone Ledeen, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East in President Donald Trump’s first term.

The officials said the assessment is difficult because of the secrecy surrounding Iran’s arsenal, the many different producers it relies on, and the open question of how many new missiles Tehran can assemble from finished components stockpiled underground.

The uncertainty cuts both ways. The true number could be lower than 1,500 — or higher than 2,500. What the intelligence community does not dispute is that Iran still has enough missiles to threaten American bases and allied cities across the region if full-scale fighting returns.

What Does the Iran Missile Arsenal Mean for the Region?

The arsenal is the main reason the war has not ended in a clear victory for either side. Destroying Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities was one of the principal goals of the United States and Israel when they launched the war on February 28. Both governments later declared the joint offensive a success, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran’s missile programme had been crippled and its remaining stockpile was “running out.”

The new assessment tells a different story. Iranian forces have kept firing missiles and drones at American military facilities, radar installations and early-warning systems across the Middle East. According to the report, the damage prompted Washington to relocate numerous American military assets to Israel, which is considered safer.

The threat is not theoretical. On Friday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched two drones toward a United States military installation in Bahrain, in its first attempted strike on an American facility in a Gulf state in more than two months. American forces shot both drones down and reported no damage, but the incident showed that Tehran is still willing and able to reach across the Gulf.

Why Is the Iran Missile Arsenal Estimate So Uncertain?

Counting Iran’s missiles is one of the hardest problems in military intelligence. Tehran treats the size and location of its arsenal as a closely guarded secret, and production is spread across multiple facilities and manufacturers. Jim Lamson, a visiting research fellow at King’s College London and a former CIA analyst who specialised in the Iranian military, said the work can be “extremely low confidence even with all the classified information.”

A separate Western intelligence estimate, reported this week by The Times of Israel, put the remaining inventory at a minimum of about 1,700 ballistic missiles and said Iran is building roughly 50 new ballistic missiles a month — about half its pre-war production rate. That figure sits comfortably inside the American range, and an Israeli security source separately put the arsenal above 1,700 missiles as of early November.

The same estimate said Iran has launched at least 2,200 ballistic missiles and more than 4,900 Shahed drones since the war began.

How Was the Iran Missile Arsenal Rebuilt?

Much of the arsenal survived because it was buried. In April, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran retained thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles that could be pulled out of hiding or retrieved from underground sites. American and Israeli strikes collapsed the entrances to those facilities, but satellite images released since then have shown Iran regaining access to some of them by excavating the blocked entrances. An Israeli official said the missiles stored at the underground sites likely survived intact.

In September, the Journal reported that Iran had resumed producing ballistic missiles from finished components stockpiled underground, and satellite analysis has since flagged fresh excavation at sites near Tehran and in the north of the country, consistent with moving production below ground.

An Israeli official summed up the situation bluntly: despite suffering severe damage, the Iranians are “rebuilding and rearming” and preparing for another serious round of fighting.

What Happens Next?

For now, the war sits in a fragile lull. Trump will not resume the war for now, according to reporting this week, and Washington has leaned on sanctions and a naval blockade of Iranian ports rather than a new major offensive. Gulf allies have warned against renewed fighting, fearing retaliatory Iranian strikes, while Israel continues to press for further military action.

But the politics point in a harder direction. Speaking at a Veterans Day ceremony on Wednesday, Trump suggested the United States had yet to achieve a complete victory over Iran. “We fought back, and we seriously fought back. And we won, just a question of when we want to end it,” he said. “We want to make sure we have a total victory, not a 93 percent victory. It’s going to be total.”

In an interview on Thursday with radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump said he would consider it a “defeat” if Iran’s regime remained in power when he leaves office.

What to watch:

• Whether the fragile lull holds through the coming week, or a new strike or drone incident breaks it
• The trilateral summit of Trump, Putin and Xi in Shenzhen on November 19, where Iran is on the agenda
• Satellite evidence of further excavation at Iran’s underground missile sites
• Any new American or Israeli assessment of how fast Iran’s production is running

Bottom line: The war was supposed to end Iran’s missile threat. Eight months on, American intelligence says Tehran still holds up to 2,500 missiles and is building more. That arsenal is the reason the Gulf remains one miscalculation away from a wider war — and why neither side can claim the fight is finished.

Sources and Verification

1. The Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2026 — “U.S. Figures Iran Still Has up to 2,500 Missiles, Countering Trump Assertions” (1,500–2,500 missile assessment; low confidence; Israeli estimate above 1,500; Ledeen and Lamson comments; underground production; relocation of US assets to Israel; Trump Veterans Day and Hewitt remarks).
2. The Times of Israel (via National Security Journal, November 12, 2026) — Western intelligence estimate first reported by Bloomberg (minimum ~1,700 ballistic missiles; ~50 missiles built per month; at least 2,200 missiles and 4,900 Shahed drones launched since February; excavation at Garmdareh and Shahroud).
3. Reuters / The Media Line, November 14–15, 2026 — “Iran Attacks US Military Base in Gulf for First Time in Nearly 2 Months” (IRGC drone attack on US installation in Bahrain; CENTCOM interception of two drones; no casualties or damage; retaliation for Sirik strike; UN Security Council session).
4. The Washington Post (via FarazWire, November 14, 2026) — “Trump Will Not Resume War With Iran for Now” (status quo; sanctions and blockade preferred over new offensive; Gulf allies warning against renewed fighting).
5. RFE/RL and la Repubblica, November 14, 2026 — Trump to discuss Iran and nuclear arms with Putin and Xi at a trilateral summit in Shenzhen on November 19; Kremlin confirmation via TASS; Ukraine not explicitly on the agenda.