November 15, 2026 | Yemen and the Red Sea

Yemen’s government forces announced on Sunday that they were pulling back from the area around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to defend their temporary capital, Aden, in a major setback for the Saudi-backed campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis. The Bab el-Mandeb Houthi control now in place leaves the Houthis overlooking one of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints and raises the prospect of fresh advances toward Aden itself.

The Southern Armed Forces, the main military force fighting for Yemen’s internationally recognised government in the south, said in a statement that they were carrying out “a redeployment operation for its forces from Dhubab Airport and the Bab el-Mandeb area, west of Taiz Governorate,” to secure Aden and strengthen other front lines.

The announcement signalled the apparent end of a six-week government counteroffensive to reclaim the coast near the mouth of the Red Sea. The Houthis had seized that coast in September in a lightning advance that squeezed oil exports, and the government launched Operation Fajr Yemen, or Dawn of Yemen, on October 5 to push them back. On Sunday, the government gave the ground back.

What Happened at Bab el-Mandeb?

Government forces have redeployed to al-Suqyah, just south of Dhubab and about 150 kilometres west of Aden, Yemeni military sources said, adding that government troops were still trying to push the Houthis from nearby coastal areas.

The Houthis have given a different account of how the retreat happened. An unnamed military source quoted by Houthi-run media said government forces had lost their positions and rear lines after being cornered and had been forced to pull back toward Aden. There was no immediate response from the Houthis’ leadership or from Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government’s main international ally.

Yemen’s presidency has pushed back on the word “withdrawal.” A media adviser to the presidency told Asharq Al-Awsat that the move was a redeployment, not a withdrawal, and said the troops were now about six to eight kilometres from Bab el-Mandeb and still inside the operational area. The Southern Armed Forces said the redeployment would also support efforts to break the Houthi siege of Taiz city.

Why Did Yemen’s Forces Pull Back?

The retreat follows weeks of intense fighting along Yemen’s western coast and in Lahj governorate. On Saturday, three Yemeni military officials said government troops had begun fortifying positions west and north of Aden after the Houthis took high ground in Lahj overlooking the city.

In the highlands north of Aden, where the Houthis have besieged Yemen’s third-largest city, Taiz, the fighters are now positioned just outside the district of Tur al-Bahah, about 80 kilometres from Aden, the military sources said. The government has been based in Aden since 2015, after the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, and losing the city would be a far heavier blow than losing the strait.

What Does Bab el-Mandeb Houthi Control Mean for Shipping?

The Bab el-Mandeb is the narrow passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, through which a large share of Asia-to-Europe seaborne trade passes on its way to the Suez Canal. Whoever holds the Yemeni coast overlooking it can threaten shipping, and the Houthis have already shown their willingness to do so.

No attack on shipping has been reported since Sunday’s announcement, and no closure of the strait has been declared. The waterway remains an open international shipping lane. But with Bab el-Mandeb Houthi control now a fact, the Houthis hold the high ground over it, and their September advance already squeezed oil exports from the area. Shippers will be watching for any sign that the Houthis intend to use their new position against vessels, as they have done repeatedly in the Red Sea over the past two years.

The human cost of the escalation is already large. The International Organization for Migration has recorded 334,181 people displaced since the escalation began in June, according to its latest tracking update.

How Does the Retreat Fit the Wider Gulf War?

Sunday’s announcement came on the same day Iran fired drones at United States bases in Bahrain, the second such attack in three days. The Revolutionary Guards said six drones targeted a US air defence radar facility at the al-Riffa air base, and Bahrain said it intercepted several incoming attacks. Iran and its allies ramped up pressure on the United States and allied Gulf states on two fronts at once, and the Yemen retreat was one of them.

The timing puts new pressure on US President Donald Trump, who has said in recent days that he might hold off from attacking Iran if the United States faces no new provocations from either Tehran or the Houthis. The Bahrain strikes and the Yemen setback together suggest that neither condition is holding. Major warfare between the United States and Iran has calmed since the early phase of the conflict, but with diplomacy stalled there is little immediate prospect of a resolution either to the wider conflict or to the war in Yemen.

What Happens Next?

The immediate question is whether the Houthis press their advantage toward Aden. Their fighters are 80 kilometres from the city, and the government is now fortifying positions to its west and north. A push on Aden would be a major escalation.

The second question is whether the strait itself is threatened. The Houthis have not announced any closure or any new campaign against shipping, and the Southern Armed Forces say they are still fighting for the coast. But the balance of power around the strait has shifted. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, is due to visit Oman on Tuesday for talks, and Oman has played a role as mediator in the crisis.

What to watch

• Whether Houthi forces advance from Tur al-Bahah toward Aden in the coming days.
• Any Houthi statement on shipping through Bab el-Mandeb, and any incident involving vessels near the strait.
• Saudi Arabia’s response to the retreat, and whether it increases air support for the government’s forces.
• The outcome of the Iranian foreign minister’s visit to Oman on Tuesday.
• Whether the United States responds to the Bahrain drone attacks with new strikes on Iran.

Sources and Verification

1. Reuters, “Anti-Houthi forces retreat in Yemen as Iran strikes Bahrain,” by Mohammed Ghobari, November 15, 2026 — Southern Armed Forces statement, redeployment to al-Suqyah, Houthi positions near Tur al-Bahah, Bahrain drone attacks.
2. RTE (Ireland), relaying Reuters, November 15, 2026 — retreat as a major setback and the apparent end of the six-week counteroffensive; government troops at al-Suqyah, 150 km west of Aden.
3. Asharq Al-Awsat, November 15, 2026 — Yemeni presidency media adviser describing the move as a redeployment, not a withdrawal, with troops six to eight kilometres from Bab el-Mandeb.
4. Abay Times, “Yemeni forces quit Bab el-Mandeb area as Houthis gain ground,” November 15, 2026 — Houthi-run media account, IOM displacement figure of 334,181, fortification of Aden positions on November 14.
5. South24 Center, November 15, 2026, via reporting on the redeployment — Southern Forces redeployed to the al-Suqya area in Lahj governorate; operations continuing and Aden’s protection the priority.

Bottom line: Yemen’s government has traded the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the defence of Aden, and the Houthis now hold the ground overlooking one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. The retreat ends a six-week counteroffensive, leaves Aden itself under threat, and — on the same day Iran struck US bases in Bahrain — shows Tehran and its allies pressing on two fronts at once. Whether the strait stays open now depends on what the Houthis choose to do with it.